Arbitrage betting explained

How arbitrage betting works

Every sportsbook price implies a probability: 1 divided by the decimal odds. Sportsbooks price the same event independently, so their prices differ. Add up the implied probabilities of the best price for each outcome. If the total is below 100%, the sportsbooks disagree enough that betting every outcome can return more than you staked.

The gap is the whole opportunity. It is measured against the total stake, and it exists only while the prices stay where they are.

The formula

For each outcome, take the best decimal odds available. Split the total stake in proportion to the implied probabilities, and the same amount comes back on every outcome.

A worked arbitrage betting example

Two sportsbooks price a tennis match. One offers 2.10 on Player A and the other offers 2.04 on Player B. The implied probabilities are 47.62% and 49.02%, a total of 96.64%.

With a total stake of 1,000, bet 492.75 on Player A and 507.25 on Player B. Either result returns 1,034.78, a profit of 34.78 or +3.48% of the total staked. You can try your own prices in the arbitrage calculator.

Two-way and three-way markets

A two-way market has two outcomes, such as a tennis match winner. A three-way market adds the draw, as in a football 1X2 market, and every one of the three outcomes must be covered. The calculation is the same for both: use the best price for each outcome, from whichever sportsbook offers it.

What the arithmetic leaves out

The formula assumes every bet is placed at the price shown and settles the way you expect. In practice several things can break that:

• A price can move or be withdrawn before you place the second bet, leaving you exposed on the first.
• A sportsbook can reject or void a bet.
• Sportsbooks settle abandoned matches, retirements and forfeits differently, so two markets with the same name are not always the same bet.
• Stake limits and rounding to a sportsbook's stake steps change the split slightly.
• Fees, commissions, taxes and currency conversion are not in the figure.
• A sportsbook can limit or close an account that wins regularly.

How BETCYON helps

BETCYON records prices from 1win, 1XBET, Pinnacle, Gamegram and Sportbet with the time each price was observed, recognises the same game across sportsbooks even when the names differ, combines only markets that can be compared, and shows the stake for each sportsbook. It states the assumption behind every opportunity and does not place bets.

What does arbitrage betting mean?

It means placing bets on every possible outcome of one event, at the best price each sportsbook offers for it, so that the amount returned is the same whichever outcome happens and is larger than the total staked. The word arbitrage comes from finance, where it means profiting from a price difference between markets.

Is arbitrage betting worth it?

It depends on the size of the gaps you can find, how fast you can place every bet, and what fees, stake limits and account restrictions cost you. In the worked example the gap is 3.48% of the stake before any of those.

What is a surebet?

A surebet is another name for an arbitrage bet: a set of bets covering every outcome of an event, priced so that the amount returned is larger than the total staked whichever outcome happens. It depends on every bet being placed and settled as the arithmetic assumes.

How much can arbitrage betting make?

The return is the gap between the total implied probability and 100%, measured against the total staked. In the worked example it is 3.48%. Real gaps depend on the prices available at the moment, and fees and limits reduce them.

What is the difference between arbitrage betting and matched betting?

Matched betting turns sportsbook promotions such as free bets into cash. Arbitrage betting does not rely on promotions: it uses differences between the regular prices of different sportsbooks.

Why do prices differ between sportsbooks?

Each sportsbook sets its own prices, updates them at its own speed and builds in its own margin. BETCYON shows how long ago each price was observed so that a stale price is easy to spot.