Hedge calculator

How hedging a bet works

You back Team A at long odds. Later the price on Team B is attractive relative to where you started. If you back Team B with the right stake, the amount returned is the same whichever team wins, and it may be a profit or a smaller loss than leaving the first bet open.

The hedge formula

Your first bet returns stake × odds if it wins. Choose the hedge stake so the second bet returns exactly that amount when it wins instead.

A worked hedge example

You staked 100 at decimal odds of 5.00, so the bet would return 500. The opposite outcome is now offered at 1.80. The hedge stake is 500 ÷ 1.80 = 277.78. If your first bet wins you get 500 and have staked 377.78, a profit of 122.22. If the hedge wins, 277.78 × 1.80 is also 500, and the profit is the same 122.22.

Now a hedge at worse prices: 100 staked at 2.00 and the opposite side at 1.50. The hedge stake is 200 ÷ 1.50 = 133.33, and the return of 200 is less than the 233.33 staked, a loss of 33.33 on either result. Hedging locks that in; it may still be preferable to a larger loss.

Hedging versus arbitrage

A hedge starts from a bet that is already placed and whose price has since moved. An arbitrage is planned from the start, covering every outcome at the best prices on offer. The arithmetic is the same equal-return split; the arbitrage calculator does it for two and three outcomes.

What a hedge calculation leaves out

The equal-return figure assumes everything settles as expected:

• This calculator covers a two-way market. In a three-way market the hedge must cover every other outcome.
• The price can change or disappear before you place the hedge.
• The two bets must be on the same market and settle the same way, including for abandoned matches and retirements.
• Fees, stake limits and rounding change the real stake and return.

How do I calculate a hedge bet?

Multiply the original stake by the original decimal odds and divide by the hedge odds. Staking 100 at 5.00 with the other side at 1.80 gives a hedge stake of 277.78.

When should I hedge a bet?

When the amount you can lock in by hedging is worth more to you than the chance of the larger win. The calculator shows both numbers so you can compare them; the choice is yours.

Can hedging lose money?

Yes. If the opposite outcome is priced worse than needed, the equal return is below your total stake, so both results lose the same amount. That can still be smaller than the loss if the original bet fails.

Is a hedge the same as an arbitrage?

The arithmetic is the same, but a hedge follows a bet you already placed, while an arbitrage covers all outcomes from the start at prices that add up to less than 100%.

Does this work for three-way markets?

This calculator handles two outcomes. For three outcomes, such as a football 1X2, every other outcome needs its own hedge stake; the arbitrage calculator covers the three-way split.